从中碳强度指数看上海碳减排的足迹

Shanghai Carbon Emission Reduction in General, by SINO Carbon Intensity Index

摘要: 中碳强度指数是为全国节能减排行业提供一个以单位GDP二氧化碳排放量为载体的指数系统，可有效反应时间序列上地区碳排放强度的变化。本文从产业结构、能源强度、能源结构、政策及经济环境等几个方面，探讨了2005至2011年上海市碳排放强度的影响因素，并在此基础上提出了促进上海碳减排活动的建议。分析结果表明，上海市的节能目标和低碳政策，对能源结构调整、产业结构优化和能源强度下降都起到了推动作用，进而促成了近几年来上海市碳排放强度和上海市碳强度指数(X_sh,y)的持续下降。而经济危机、“4万亿元刺激经济方案”、以及2010年上海世博会等重大经济事件和活动，也作为独立的外部因素对X_sh,y起到了重要影响。SINO Carbon Intensity Index is an index system which is expressed as the carbon dioxide emission per GDP. The index can reflect the changes on carbon emission intensity in different administrative regions in time series. This paper discusses the factors of carbon emission intensity of Shanghaifrom 2005 to 2011, based on industrial structure, energy intensity, energy structure and policy & economic environment. The result shows that the energy-saving target and low-carbon policy of Shanghai promoted the energy restructuring, the optimization of industrial structure and the decreasing of energy intensity; and then pushed forward the declining of carbon emission intensity of Shanghai and X_sh,y in recent years. Major economic events and activities, such as the economic crisis, “4 Trillion Yuan Economic Stimulus Plan” and Expo 2010 Shanghai China, etc., were the independent external factors that influenced the X_sh,y obviously.