基于因子分析法的中国外汇储备增长因素分析

The Growth Factor Analysis of Chinese Foreign Exchange Reserve Based on Factorial Analysis

摘要: 近年来，我国外汇储备的快速增长引发了众多的目光和讨论，那么，究竟是什么原因造成了这种增长，经济学界众说纷纭。本文利用与外汇储备密切相关、颇具代表性的指标：经济发展水平、外债余额、实际利用外资额、进出口总额、广义货币供应量(M2)和人民币兑美元的年均汇率价格等，结合多元统计分析中的因子分析法，研究外汇储备增长的主要原因。最终得出了经济增长是导致外汇储备增长的主要原因的结论。

Abstract: In recent years, the rapid growth of the Chinese foreign exchange triggers lots of attention and discussions, and then there is no conclusion about what caused this growth. This paper uses the typical indicators such as economical development level, the balance of foreign debts, the sum of actual foreign investment, the total value of import and export, the broad money supply (M2) and the annual average exchange rate between RMB and the dollar and so on, combining with factor analysis in multivariate statistical analysis, and then discusses the main causes for the rising of foreign exchange reserves. Finally there is a conclusion that economic growth is the main reason for the increasing of foreign exchange reserves.