基于SWAT模型的城市水源地对未来气候变化的水文响应
Water Resources Responses to Climate Changes in Xi’an Heihe River Basin Based on SWAT Model
DOI: 10.12677/JWRR.2013.25043, PDF, HTML,  被引量 下载: 3,435  浏览: 10,698  国家科技经费支持
作者: 李彦漫, 霍艾迪*, 刘睿翀, 陈莎莎, 王晓峰, 李继东：长安大学环境科学与工程学院，西安
关键词: 黑河流域；SWAT模型；径流模拟；水文响应；Heihe River Basin; SWAT Model; Runoff Simulation; Response to Climate Change
摘要: 西安黑河流域的气候变化趋势和对水资源的影响，将直接关系到西安市约800万人的饮水问题。因此分析研究西安黑河流域水资源对气候变化的响应特点，可为地面调水、应对气候变化的不利影响和更好地保护城市水源地的水资源提供科学依据。本研究以分布式水循环模型为基础，利用西安黑河流域2005~2011年过去7年的水文站实测数据，对2020s~2050s未来40年西安黑河金盆水库入口陈河水文站汛期、非汛期的年径流过程进行了模拟和预测。研究结果表明：西安黑河流域未来水资源量在未来40年内呈现先减少后增加的趋势，其平均径流量将比基准年均有所增减，变幅分别为：−11.0%、−6.4%、7.2%、190%；尤其是在50s汛期平均径流量达到最大值，西安黑河中下游地区防洪形势严峻。
Abstract: Future Climate changes and its influences on water resources in Xi’an Heihe River concern the drinking water problems of 8 million people in Xi’an City. Therefore, it is very important to analyze the characteristics of water resource in response to climate changes for providing scientific foundation to ground water diversion, dealing with adverse effect of climate changes and protecting the water sources areas in Xi’an Heihe River. Years 2005-2011 were set as the base period, and monthly runoffs were simulated using SWAT in the base period in Xi’an Heihe Basin. Based on the accurate runoff simulation of the base period, each possible water resource situation under climate changes scenarios according to the most possible climate change predictions was simulated in Xi’an Heihe Basin. The result shows that in the future, Xi’an Heihe River Basin water resources quantity in the next 40 years showed a trend of increase after the first reduce, the average annual runoff growth is respectively: −11.0%, −6.4%, 7.2%, 190% than benchmark; Especially average flood season runoff reach maximum in the 50s, and the flood control situation is serious in the middle and lower reaches of Heihe region.
文章引用：李彦漫, 霍艾迪, 刘睿翀, 陈莎莎, 王晓峰, 李继东. 基于SWAT模型的城市水源地对未来气候变化的水文响应[J]. 水资源研究, 2013, 2(5): 301-308. http://dx.doi.org/10.12677/JWRR.2013.25043

参考文献

[1] BATES, B., et al. Climate change and water. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2008.
[2] ZHANG, X.-C., LIU, W.-Z. Simulating potential response of hydrology, soil erosion, and crop productivity to climate change in Changwu tableland region on the Loess Plateau of China. Ag- ricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2005, 131(3): 127-142.
[3] ARNOLD, J.G., et al. Large area hydrologic modeling and as- sessment part I: Model development1. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 1998, 34(1): 73-89.
[4] 赵寒冰. 流域地理过程分布式物理模型体系的集成与应用研究[D]. 南京师范大学, 2004. ZHAO Hanbing. Basin geography process integration and ap- plication research of distributed system of physical model. Nan- jing Normal University, 2004. (in Chinese)
[5] 范丽军, 符淙斌, 陈德亮. 统计降尺度法对未来区域气候变化情景预估的研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2005, 20(3): 320- 329. FAN Lijun, FU Congbin and CHEN Deliang. Review on crea- tong future climate change scenarios by statistical downscaling techniques. Advances in Earth Science, 2005, 20(3): 320-329. (in Chinese)
[6] NASH, J., SUTCLIFFE, J. River flow forecasting through con- ceptual models part I—A discussion of principles. Journal of hydrology, 1970, 10(3): 282-290.
[7] 吴景霞. 西安黑河流域水文要素变化特征分析[J]. 水利科技与经济, 2008, 14(11): 874-875. WU Jingxia. Analysis of characteristics of Xi’an Heihe water- shed hydrology factors change. Water Science Technology and Economy, 2008, 14(11): 874-875. (in Chinese)
[8] 莫淑红, 沈冰, 季瑞瑞, 汪志荣. 西安市区地表供水水源径流变化规律分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2006, 23(1): 183-188. MO Shuhong, SHEN Bing, JI Ruirui and WANG Zhirong. Analysis on the periodicity and variance trend of runoff volumes of surface water supply for the urban area of Xi’an City. Arid Zone Research, 2006, 23(1): 183-188. (in Chinese)
[9] 王中根, 刘昌明, 吴险峰. 基于DEM的分布式水文模型研究综述[J]. 自然资源学报, 2003, 18(2): 168-173. WANG Zhonggen, LIU Changming and WU Xianfeng. A re- view of the studies on distributed hydrological model based on DEM. Journal of Natural Resources, 2003, 18(2): 168-173. (in Chinese)
[10] 汤国安, 杨昕. ArcGIS地理信息系统空间分析实验教程[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2006. TANG Guoan, YANG Xin. ArcGIS geographic information sys- tem spatial analysis experiment tutorial. Beijing: Science Press, 2006. (in Chinese)
[11] 邱国玉, 张清涛. 快速城市化过程中深圳的水资源与水环境问题[J]. 河海大学学报: 自然科学版, 2010, 38(6): 629-633. QIU Guoyu, ZHANG Qingtao. Rapid urbanization in the proc- ess of water resources and water environment problems of Shen- zhen. Journal of Hehai University, 2010, 38(6): 629-633. (in Chinese)
[12] 丁相毅, 贾仰文, 王浩, 牛存稳. 气候变化对海河流域水资源的影响及其对策[J]. 自然资源学报, 2010, 25(4): 604-613. DING Xiangyi, JIA Yangwen, WANG Hao and NIU Cunwen. Impacts of climate change on water resources in the Haihe River basin and corresponding countermeasures. Journal of Natural Resources, 2010, 25(4): 604-613. (in Chinese)
[13] 张利平, 曾思栋, 王任超, 夏军. 气候变化对滦河流域水文循环的影响及模拟[J]. 资源科学, 2011, 33(5): 966-974. ZHANG Liping, ZENG Sidong, WANG Renchao and XIA Jun. Impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle in the Luan River Basin. Resources Science, 2011, 33(5): 966-974. (in Chi- nese).
[14] 芮孝芳. 流域水文模型研究中的若干问题[J]. 水科学进展, 1997, 8(1): 94-98. RUI Xiaofang. Several problems in the study of watershed hy- drological model. Water Science Progress, 1997, 8(1): 94-98. (in Chinese)