扎鲁特旗近 60 年气温变化趋势与突变分析

Trend Detection and Abrupt Analysis in Annual Temperature during the Recent 60 Years in Jarud

摘要: 选用扎鲁特旗 1953~2011 年逐日气温资料，利用线性倾向率等方法对扎鲁特旗近 60 年年平均气温，平均最高、最低气温年际和年代变化进行趋势分析，利用 Mann-Kendall 方法进行突变检验。结果表明：扎鲁特旗年平均气温、平均最高、最低气温呈上升趋势，其气候倾向率分别为 0.439、0.258 和 0.546℃/10a，平均最低气温上升趋势比年平均气温和平均最高气温还要明显。年平均气温、平均最高、最低气温有明显的年代变化。扎鲁特旗年平均气温、平均最高气温和平均最低气温突变主要发生在 1987、1990 和 1982 年。

Abstract: Based on the observation data of air temperature in Jarud from 1953 to 2011, the methods of climatic tendency and Mann-Kendall test are used to analyze the temperature change of Jarud. The results show that the annual average temperature, maximum and minimum temperature in Jarud showed an upward trend, of which the linear tendency rate was 0.439, 0.258 and 0.546 respectively. The increasing trend in minimum temperature was more significant than that in mean temperature and maximum temperature. There was obvious annual variation in average mean temperature, maximum and minimum temperature. The abrupt change point of annual mean temperature, maximum and minimum temperature in Jarud appeared mainly in 1987, 1990 and 1982.