水资源研究  >> Vol. 2 No. 6 (December 2013)

太湖西苕溪流域水文序列突变检测比较和分析研究
Change-Point Detection and Analysis of Hydrological Time Series in Xitiaoxi River Basin

DOI: 10.12677/JWRR.2013.26059, PDF, HTML,  被引量 下载: 2,418  浏览: 8,540  国家科技经费支持

作者: 邱玲花, 彭定志, 张明月:北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京;林荷娟:水利部太湖流域管理局,上海

关键词: 变点Mann-KendallPettittYamamoto滑动T检验Change-Point; Mann-Kendall; Pettitt; Yamamoto; Moving T Test

摘要: 探索流域水文变点可发现其水文演变规律,为水资源的可持续利用提供科学指导。本文以太湖流域的重要水源西苕溪流域为研究对象,在5%显著性水平下,采用Mann-KendallPettitt、滑动T检验、Yamamoto、差积曲线秩检验联合识别法等分析和比较了1972~2010年流域降水和径流的变点。结果表明:西苕溪流域降水和径流的变点均发生在1999年,该结果为进一步甄别气候变化和人类活动的贡献率提供了研究基础。
Abstract: The change-point analysis of hydrological time series would help to find the evolution of hydrological processes and provide the scientific guidance for sustainable utilization of water resources. As the crucial headwaters of Taihu Lake basin, Xitiaoxi River basin was chosen as the study case. Under the significance level 5%, Mann-Kendall, Pettitt, Moving T test, Yamamoto and the residual mass curve combined rank test methods were applied to compare and analyze the change-point of precipitation and streamflow from 1972 to 2010 in the basin. It is found that the change-point of precipitation and streamflow time series both happened at the year 1999 in Xitiaoxi River basin. The result would provide the basis for the further studies on identification for the impact of climate change and human activities on hydrological processes.

文章引用: 邱玲花, 彭定志, 林荷娟, 张明月. 太湖西苕溪流域水文序列突变检测比较和分析研究[J]. 水资源研究, 2013, 2(6): 415-419. http://dx.doi.org/10.12677/JWRR.2013.26059

参考文献

[1] 陈晓宏, 涂新军, 谢平等. 水文要素变异的人类活动影响研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2010, 25(8): 800-811. CHEN Xiaohong, TUX injun, XIE Ping, et al. Progresses in the research of human induced variability of hydrological elements. Advances in Earth Science, 2010, 25(8): 800-811. (in Chinese)
[2] 周园园, 师长兴, 范小黎等. 国内水文序列变异点分析方法及在各流域应用研究进展[J]. 地理科学进展, 2011, 30(11): 1361-1369. ZHOU Yuanyuan, SHI Changxing, FAN Xiaoli, et al. Advances in the research methods of abrupt changes of hydrologic sequences and their applications in drainage basins in China. Advances in Geography, 2011, 30(11): 1361-1369. (in Chinese)
[3] 拜存有, 苏莹, 郭旭新. 流域水文过程变点分析研究综述[J]. 水资源与水工程学报, 2010, 21(1): 83-86. BAI Cunyou, SU Ying and GUO Xuxin. Research review on change-point analysis of watershed hydrological process. Journal of Water Resources & Water Engineering, 2010, 21(1): 83-86. (in Chinese)
[4] 谢平, 陈广才, 李德等. 水文变异综合诊断方法及其应用研究[J]. 水电能源科学, 2005, 23(2): 11-14. XIE Ping, CHEN Guangcai and ZHU Yong. Comprehensive di-agnosis method of hydrologic time series change-point analysis. Water Resources and Power, 2005, 23(2): 11-14. (in Chinese)
[5] 朱求安, 张万昌. 流域水文模型中面雨量的空间插值[J]. 水土保持研究, 2005, 12(2): 11-14. ZHU Qiu’an, ZHANG Wanchang. The interpolation of sub-basin-averaged precipitation in hydrological models. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2005, 12(2): 11-14. (in Chi-nese)
[6] MANN, H.B. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica, 1945, 13(3): 245-259.
[7] Kendall. Rank correlation measures. 2nd Edition, London: Charles Griffin, 1975.
[8] 雷红富, 谢平, 陈广才等. 水文序列变异点检验方法的性能比较分析[J]. 水电能源科学, 2007, 25(4): 36-40. LEI Hongfu, XIE Ping, CHEN Guangcai, et al. Comparison and analysis on the performance of hydrological time series change-point testing methods. Water Resources and Power, 2007, 25(4): 36-40. (in Chinese)
[9] PETTITT, A.N. A non-parametric approach to the chang-point problem. Applied Statistics, 1979, 28(2): 126-135.
[10] YAMAMOTO, R., IWASHINA, T. and SANGA, N.K. An analysis of climate jump. Meteorological Society of Japan, 1986, 64(2): 273-281.
[11] 杨梅学, 姚檀栋. 气候突变及其研究进展[J]. 大自然探索, 1999, 18(2): 30-34. YAND Meixue, YAO Tandon. Climate abrupt change and the progress of its study. Exploration of Nature, 1999, 18(2): 30-34. (in Chinese)
[12] 邹悦, 张勃, 戴声佩等. 黑河流域莺落峡站水文过程变异点的识别与分析[J]. 资源科学, 2011, 33(7): 1264-1271. ZOU Yue, ZHANG Bo, DAI Shengpei, et al. Identification and analysis of mutations of hydrological processes at the Yingluoxia Station in the Heihe River Bas. Resources Science, 2011, 33(7): 1264-1271. (in Chinese)
[13] 于延胜, 陈兴伟. 水文序列变异的差积曲线–秩检验联和识别法在闽江流域的应用——以竹岐站年径流序列为例[J]. 资源科学, 2009, 31(10): 1717-1721. YU Yansheng, CHEN Xingwei. Difference curve-rank test method for detecting the change point in hydrological time series. Resources Science, 2009, 31(10): 1717-1721. (in Chinese)
[14] ZHANG, C., ZHANG, B., LI, W., et al. Response of streamflow to climate change and human activity in Xitiaoxi river basin in China. Hydrological Processes, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9539
[15] 高伟, 王西琴, 曾勇. 太湖流域西苕溪1972~2008年径流量变化趋势与原因分析[J]. 中国农村水利水电, 2010, 332(6): 33-37. GAO Wei, WANG Xiqin and ZENG Yong. A trend analysis of observations of runoff in the Xitiaoxi River in the Taihu Lake between 1972 and 2008. China Rural Water and Hydropower, 2010, 332(6): 33-37. (in Chinese)
[16] 蔡娟, 许有鹏, 石怡. 西苕溪径流变化特性及影响因素分析[J]. 水资源保护, 2011, 27(3): 16-19. CAI Juan, XU Youpeng and SHI Yi. Analysis of characteristics and influencing factors of runoff variations in Xitiaoxi Basin. Water Resources Protection, 2011, 27(3): 16-19. (in Chinese)
[17] 李娜, 许有鹏, 郭怀成. 西苕溪流域城市化对径流长期影响分析研究(英文)[J]. 北京大学学报(自然科学版), 2009, 45(4): 668-676. LI Na, XU Youpeng and GUO Huaicheng. Long-term impacts of urbanization on surface runoffin the Xitiaoxi River watershed, Eastern China. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Peki-nensis, 2009, 45(4): 668-676. (in Chinese)
[18] 吴银明, 李娜, 陆卫东等. 西苕溪流域城镇化对径流的长期影响研究[J]. 水文, 2006, 26(4): 81-84. WU Yinming, LI Na, LU Weidong, et al. Long-term influence of urbanization on runoff in Xitiaoxi River basin. Journal of China Hydrology, 2006, 26(4): 81-84. (in Chinese)
[19] 刘春蓁, 夏军. 气候变暖条件下水文循环变化检测与归因研究的几点认识[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2010, 6(5): 313-318. LIU Chunzhen, XIA Jun. Some points of view on detection and attribution of observed changes in hydrological cycle under global warming. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2010, 6(5): 313-318. (in Chinese)