灞河流域气候变化及其对径流的影响研究

Study on Impacts of Climate Changes on Bahe River Runoff

摘要: 根据1961~2010年的灞河流域内的逐月水文气象数据，采用Mann-Kendall法对水文气象要素进行变化趋势分析，采用双累积曲线和复回归模型进行径流量的气候变化响应研究。结果表明：流域内年径流量显著减少，年平均气温和年降水量均无显著的变化趋势，仅仅表现为气温略升高、降水稍减少；气温变化和降水变化对径流量的影响各自存在三个突变点，突变点前后径流量增加或减少的变化明显，由回归分析可知，气温升高、降水减少是径流量减少的主要原因。

Abstract: Based on hydrological data for Bahe River from time series of 1961 to 2010, the trend of hydro- logical and meteorological elements was analyzed by using the Mann-Kendall method. The runoff response to climate change is researched with Double mass curves and multiple regression models. The results showed that: the runoff significantly reduced while the annual mean temperature and annual precipitation have no significant trends, with only slightly elevated temperature and precipitation decreasing slightly; by the regres- sion analysis, runoff reduction is mainly due to rising temperatures and reduced precipitation.