水库水位预报模型研究

Study on Reservoir Level Forecasting Model

摘要: 水库调度通过水位调控，达到兴利防灾的目的，因此开展水库水位预报具有重要意义。以三水源新安江模型模拟降雨径流关系，利用水库调洪演算原理，构建水库水位预报模型。以水布垭水库为研究对象开展实例研究，结果表明利用建立的水位预报模型无需反推入库流量，水位预报误差满足水文预报精度要求，可有效指导生产实践。

Abstract: The reservoir level prediction is of important significance to the reservoir operation. In this paper, the forecasting model is built to predict the water level in short-term through combining the three-water sources Xin’anjiang model with water balance equation. The proposed forecasting model is applied to analyze the data of Shuibuya reservoir located in Qingjiang River. The result shows that the proposed model can simulate the reservoir inflow well and achieve a satisfactory forecast precision.