乌鲁木齐大气环境影响因素研究

The Research on Impact Factors of the Atmospheric Environment in Urumqi of China

摘要: 乌鲁木齐市是全国城市空气污染最为严重的城市之一，对乌鲁木齐大气环境污染的现状、趋势和影响因素的研究尤为重要。本文运用统计模型对乌鲁木齐空气质量数据进行三个方面的研究，通过现状描述分析发现其污染具有明显的周期性；通过时间序列ARIMA模型预测了2014年各月的空气污染指数；运用关联规则分析方法发现天气、季节、风力对空气污染状况都有明显的影响；结果表明供暖季节、非晴天对空气污染指数存在显著影响；通过对应分析发现3-10月的空气质量级别多为优良，而污染较严重的情况多集中在11月、12月、1月和2月这四个月。

Abstract: Urumqi was one of the cities with the most serious air pollution in China. The research of atmospheric environment pollution about present situation, trend and influencing factors is particularly important in Urumqi. This paper applies statistical model to analyze the air quality of Urumqi. Through the descriptive analysis of the air quality status in Urumqi, we can find the most obvious periodicity of pollution. Through the time series ARIMA predictive model, we can predict the air pollution index in 2014. Through the influencing factors analysis of the atmospheric environment pollution based on association rules, we can find that the more obvious impact factors are the weather, season, and the wind. Result shows that the air pollution index had significant differences between the heating season and the non-heating season or between the Sunny day and the cloudy day. Through the corresponding analysis of air quality levels and season, we found that the air quality levels were “better” from March to October; the more serious pollution periods are concentrated in November, December, January and February.