城镇化建设过程中的农村远期电力负荷预测研究

Research on Long-Term Power Load Forecasting at Rural Areas during Urbanization Process

摘要: 电力负荷预测是电网规划的基础，其水平的高低将直接影响电网规划质量的优劣。随着我国城镇化建设的推进，电力负荷预测的复杂性进一步加深。为满足农村地区城镇化建设对电力负荷预测的要求，适应长期可持续发展的需要，本文分析了城镇化建设过程中农村电力负荷预测所面临的诸多新老问题，对现有的空间负荷预测方法进行了改进，并以河北某县为应用实例，针对该县在城镇化建设过程中的实际情况，对其电力负荷进行了预测及校核。研究结果对我国城镇化建设中的农村地区配电网规划具有重要的参考和指导意义。

Abstract: Power load forecasting is the basis for network planning, which will directly affect the quality of network planning. With the advance of urbanization in China, the complexity of power load forecasting further deepened. To meet power load forecasting requirements and needs of long-term sustainable development at urban areas, the old and new problems about power load forecasting in the process of urbanization in rural areas are analyzed and the existing spatial load forecasting method is improved correspondingly. For the application example, power load of a country in Hebei province was predicted and checked. The research has important implications for reference and guidance in distribution network planning during the urbanization of rural areas.