新疆阿勒泰地区气温变化趋势分析

The Analysis of Temperature Change Drift for Altay Area in Xinjiang

摘要: 采用新疆阿勒泰地区7个气象观测站1961~2011年月平均气温资料，运用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、Cubic函数、Mann-Kendall突变检测、R/S分析、Morlet小波变换法对该地区气温进行了分析。结果表明，1) Mann-Kendall趋势法与线性趋势法计算的结果基本一致；除春季外，年和各季的气温均呈显著的增暖趋势；各区域中增暖趋势存在差异。2) 气温的Cubic函数基本呈单调上升趋势；除秋季外，降温到升温转型的时间基本在70年代初中期，各区域存在着较大的差异。3) 年平均气温在1976年前后、夏秋冬季分别在1972、1974、1984年前后发生了显著突变；各区域中，阿勒泰站无显著突变，大部分站集中在70年代中期；春季气温无显著的突变点。4) 年平均及各季气温存在不同显著的年代际和年际周期变化。5) 气温变化具有反持续性。

Abstract: Having the average temperature data (1961-2009) sourced from 7 weather stations in Altay in Xinjiang, we analyze the temperature using Mann-Kendall drift test, cubic function, Mann-Kendall mutation check, R/S analysis and Morlet small wave transformation. The results indicate that: 1) The result of Mann-Kendall drift test is similar to linearity drift methods. Each year and season’s temperature increased obviously except spring. The drift of temperature’s increasing is different from each station. 2) Cubic function of temperaturetakes on the monotonous trend of escalation basically, the time of decreased temperature change to the elevation of temperature is in the mid-dle of 1970s, it has great difference among stations. 3) The annual average temperature had the remarkable mutation around 1976, also in summer, autumn and winter around 1972, 1974 and 1984. There is no remarkable mutation in Altay station, the majority of stations changed in the middle of 1970s, having no remarkable mutation in spring. 4) The average temperature of year and each season has different remarkable change in the cycle of age and year. 5) Temperature di-versification is counter-durative.