百色水库防洪优化调度方法研究

Optimal Operation Methods of Baise Reservoir for Flood Control

摘要: 针对单水库常规调度的非最优性，以及优化调度模型求解的复杂性这两方面的问题，建立了确定性防洪优化调度数学模型，利用简化二维动态规划方法进行求解计算，从而克服动态规划的无后效性与马斯京根法洪水演算的时滞性冲突；运用隐随机方法分析最优轨迹，利用预报库容和出库流量两个参数，通过分段线性拟合提取出了防洪调度规则。百色水库实例研究表明，简化二维动态规划方法可简化计算；较常规调度，确定性防洪优化调度的水库最高水位平均值降低了1.41 m，优化调度明显优于常规调度；调度规则的合理性检验表明：较常规调度，调度规则的水库最高水位平均值降低了0.27 m，提高了百色水库防洪能力。

Abstract: There are mainly two difficulties in the process of solving a single reservoir operation, which are the possibility of un-optimal in the reservoir conventional operation and the complexity in the optimal operation. In order to solve these problems, a deterministic flood operation model was established, then a simplified two-dimensional dynamic programming method was used to resolve the difficulties of time-lag of the Muskingum method and find the optimal solution. Using the implicit stochastic method to analyze the optimal trajectory, forecasting reservoir capacity and storage outflow were applied. The operating rules of the Baise reservoir were derived by piecewise linear fitting. This Baise reservoir was selected as the case study. The results indicated that the simplified two-dimensional dynamic programming can reduce the computational complexity. The optimal operation made the mean value of reservoir maximum water levels 0.27 m lower than the conventional operating rules, and the optimal operation is superior to the conventional operation. The operating rules made the mean value of reservoir maximum water levels 0.27 m lower than the conventional operating rules, and the derived operating rules can optimize the process of the Baise reservoir flood storage.