摘要:
根据京津冀地区近29年(1982~2010年)83个气象站点的月平均气温和月降水量数据，运用趋势分析、突变检验、经验正交函数(EOF)分解等方法，研究了该地区气温和降水时空变化特征。结果表明：1) 京津冀地区气温空间分布差异较大，近29年研究区平均气温年际变化整体呈增加趋势，1993年为气温突变年；各季气温均呈上升趋势，其中冬季上升趋势最为明显，其次是春季和夏季，秋季上升趋势最小。2) 降水量空间分布不均，年降水量整体呈下降趋势，年际波动较大；四季中，夏季呈减少趋势，其他季节均为弱的增加趋势。3) EOF分析表明，整个研究区气温空间分布呈一致性变化，气温明显增加的区域位于中西部地区，1983~1987年为下降趋势，1988年以后呈增加趋势，特别是1993年以后气温增加显著；降水空间分布差异较大，且存在较大的年际变化，1997年以前以增加为主，1998~2002年为偏少期，2003年以后降水增加。
Abstract: According to the data of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in recent 29 years (1982-2010) of 83 me-teorological stations in the monthly average temperature and monthly precipitation, using trend analysis, mutation test, the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method, the characteristics of temperature and precipitation change were studied. The results showed that: 1) The difference of spatial distribution of temperature in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is big. In the recent 29 years, the average annual temperature variation has increased. In 1993, there was an abrupt change in temperature. Seasonal temperature was rising, and the upward trend in winter was the most ob-vious, followed by the spring and summer. The rise in autumn was the minimum. 2) Precipitation was uneven according to spatial distribution; the overall annual precipitation showed a decreasing trend; the interannual fluctuation is big. In the four seasons, precipitation in summer was de-creasing, and that in other seasons was weakly increasing; 3) EOF analysis showed that in the study area, the spatial distribution of temperature was consistent with changes in temperature. In the central and western regions, the temperature increased obviously; however, from 1983 to 1987, it declined; it showed an increasing trend after 1988, especially after 1993. The difference in spatial distribution of precipitation was big, and there were large interannual variations. Before 1997, the precipitation mainly increased; from 1998 to 2002, it increased less; after 2003 it increased again.