管理科学与工程  >> Vol. 3 No. 4 (December 2014)

基于博弈分析的供应链牛鞭效应削减对策
The Suggestions to Whittle down the Bull Whip Effect Based on Game Analysis

DOI: 10.12677/MSE.2014.34014, PDF, HTML, 下载: 2,181  浏览: 8,133 

作者: 袁 方:北京交通大学,经济管理学院,北京

关键词: 供应链牛鞭效应博弈分析削减对策Supply Chain Bull Whip Effect Game Analysis Whittle down Countermeasures

摘要: 本文设定了一个IT企业的链状供应链,考虑到了供应链成员可能存在有意识削减牛鞭效应的行为,即可能其生产的量比其接到的需求报告的量要小。对供应链各个成员进行完全信息静态博弈分析,得出如下结论:由于企业追求自身利益最大化,存在故意扩大实际需求的败德行为;因为渠道很重要,下游企业具有很大话语权,上游企业不得不按照下游企业的要求进行生产,从而造成供应链库存过剩,使供应链整体利益遭受损失;只有供应链成员企业自觉规范自己的行为,供应链才能获得最大利益。为了实现这一目标,本文从供应链成员契约方面和信息技术方面给出了建议。
Abstract: This paper is based on a catenulate supply chain of an IT enterprise, and has considered the action that the members of the supply chain may whittle down the bull whip effect consciously, namely the yield may be less than the need they have received. Conduct a static game analysis under complete information and draw the following conclusions: as the enterprises pursue the maximal profit, they may conduct an immoral behavior that report a need larger than their actual demand; as the canal is very important, the downstream firms have a larger speaking right, the upstream firms have to produce as the downstream firms’ requirements, and this will result in an excess inventory of the supply chain, and then the supply chain will suffer for it; only if the members of the supply chain regulate their own behavior can the supply chain obtain the largest profit. In order to achieve this aim, this paper gives some suggestions in the aspects of contract of the supply chain members and information technology.

文章引用: 袁方. 基于博弈分析的供应链牛鞭效应削减对策[J]. 管理科学与工程, 2014, 3(4): 105-115. http://dx.doi.org/10.12677/MSE.2014.34014

参考文献

[1] 田立平, 孙群 (2013) 供应链中的“牛鞭效应”研究综述. 安徽农业科学, 31, 12504-12506.
[2] 任江 (2011) 简述“牛鞭效应”解决之道——精益供应链管理. 管理探索, 6, 22-23.
[3] 郑磊, 张伟 (2011) TPL与精柔协同供应链集成运作弱化牛鞭效应. 物流技术, 237, 174-176.
[4] 李翀 (2012) 含时滞的不确定性供应链网络系统牛鞭效应控制策略及其经济性能分析. 博士论文, 南京航空航天大学, 南京.
[5] 郑端 (2011) 供应链中牛鞭效应成因分析及其应对措施. 价值工程, 18, 15.
[6] 熊伟, 顾中盛 (2012) 服装供应链中的牛鞭效应与弱化对策研究——以KD服饰有限公司为例. 商场现代化, 697, 20.
[7] 邢镇, 陈嘉 (2011) 基于物流网络化的供应链牛鞭效应控制研究. 物流工程与管理, 206, 71-74.
[8] 单宝伟 (2011) 博弈理论在供应链牛鞭效应中的应用. 科技信息, 23, 607.
[9] 范如国 (2011) 博弈论. 武汉大学出版社, 武汉.
[10] Li, S. (2010) Simulation-based analysis of lead time uncertainty, information sharing and cooperation on bullwhip effect in a multi-stage supply chain. M.S, Binghamton University State University of New York, New York.
[11] 南旭光 (2012) 博弈与决策. 外语教学与研究出版社, 北京.
[12] 张秀萍, 孙洁 (2004) 供应链战略联盟关系研究. 开发研究, 2, 30-32.
[13] Pasternack, B.A. (1985) Optimal Pricing and Return Policies for Perishable Commodities. Marketing. Science, 4, 166- 176.
[14] 张红, 袁琼, 王爱虎 (2013) 我国供应链契约研究的主题、问题向度及方法意识. 工业工程与管理, 18, 5-10.