基于博弈分析的供应链牛鞭效应削减对策

The Suggestions to Whittle down the Bull Whip Effect Based on Game Analysis

摘要: 本文设定了一个IT企业的链状供应链，考虑到了供应链成员可能存在有意识削减牛鞭效应的行为，即可能其生产的量比其接到的需求报告的量要小。对供应链各个成员进行完全信息静态博弈分析，得出如下结论：由于企业追求自身利益最大化，存在故意扩大实际需求的败德行为；因为渠道很重要，下游企业具有很大话语权，上游企业不得不按照下游企业的要求进行生产，从而造成供应链库存过剩，使供应链整体利益遭受损失；只有供应链成员企业自觉规范自己的行为，供应链才能获得最大利益。为了实现这一目标，本文从供应链成员契约方面和信息技术方面给出了建议。

Abstract: This paper is based on a catenulate supply chain of an IT enterprise, and has considered the action that the members of the supply chain may whittle down the bull whip effect consciously, namely the yield may be less than the need they have received. Conduct a static game analysis under complete information and draw the following conclusions: as the enterprises pursue the maximal profit, they may conduct an immoral behavior that report a need larger than their actual demand; as the canal is very important, the downstream firms have a larger speaking right, the upstream firms have to produce as the downstream firms’ requirements, and this will result in an excess inventory of the supply chain, and then the supply chain will suffer for it; only if the members of the supply chain regulate their own behavior can the supply chain obtain the largest profit. In order to achieve this aim, this paper gives some suggestions in the aspects of contract of the supply chain members and information technology.