鄱阳湖洪水预报方案研制

Flood Forecasting Scheme for Poyang Lake

摘要: 鄱阳湖为长江中下游洪涝灾害频繁的地区，鄱阳湖洪水预报方案研制对于科学调度鄱阳湖防洪减灾具有重要意义。本文分析了鄱阳湖洪水及其灾害特征，根据星子站实测水位与星子、湖口站前期水位、涨率、区间平均降雨量、五河七口入湖流量与湖口出流量之差进行相关分析，建立了湖泊水量平衡方案与多要素相关方程两种预报方案，用于鄱阳湖洪水作业预报。通过历史资料和应用检验，这些洪水预报方案可以取得较高的预报精度。

Abstract: Poyang Lake, located in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, is the area that bears fre-quent flood disasters. The development of flood forecasting scheme for the Poyang Lake is of great significance for the scientific flood dispatch and disaster reduction. This study analyzes the cha-racteristics of flood and disaster of the Poyang Lake. Related correlation analysis was carried out based on the actual measured water level of Xingzi station, water level at earlier stage of Xingzi station and Hukou station, rise rate, regional average precipitation, the difference of flows into five rivers and seven stations and outflow of Hukou station. The lake water balance and multi- factor correlation equation schemes were established for flood forecasting. The floods of the Poyang Lake could be scientifically forecasted by these two schemes with relative high accuracy.