鄱阳湖与长江干流洪水遭遇规律及风险分析

Flood Coincidence Risk Analysis for the Middle Yangtze River and Poyang Lake

摘要: 本文引入von Mises分布及其混合形式拟合年最大洪水发生时间与间隔时间，应用Copula函数分别构造汉口、湖口两站年最大洪水发生时间二维联合分布和年最大洪水发生时间(间隔时间)与洪水量级的三维联合分布，分析了研究两站年最大洪水在时间、量级及过程三个方面的遭遇风险。结果表明：鄱阳湖和长江年最大洪水在7月16日遭遇的可能性最大，约为0.058％，鄱阳湖和长江年最大7d洪水过程发生遭遇的概率为7.31％。研究可为鄱阳湖流域防洪规划制定和生态经济区建设提供科学依据。

Abstract: The von Mises distribution was used to fit the series of annual maximum flood occurrence and in-terval dates. The Copula functions were used to establish the bivariate joint distribution of annual maximum flood occurrence dates and the multivariate joint distribution of interval dates and flood magnitude. The flood coincidence risk of annual maximum flood occurrence date, flood magnitude and flood process were analyzed based on the data series of Hankou and Hukou hydrological stations. The results show that the highest flood coincidence risk of annual maximum flood occurrence date and 7-day flood process between the middle Yangtze River and Poyang Lake may reach to 0.058% (on July 16th) and 7.31% respectively during the flood season. The research can provide scientific basis for Poyang Lake basin on flood prevention planning and ecological- economic zone construction.