基于BEER方法的人民币实际均衡汇率测算

The Estimation of RMB’s Equilibrium Exchange Rate Based on BEER Method

摘要: 本文在对已有的均衡汇率决定理论和方法进行比较和简要评述的基础上，选择BEER方法实证测算了人民币实际均衡汇率和实际汇率的错位情况。协整方程表明净国外资产的增加、非贸易品与贸易品价格之比上升和贸易条件的改善都会引起人民币实际汇率升值，而贸易开放度提高会引起人民币实际汇率贬值；所选样本期内汇率错位情况表明，除个别年份实际汇率接近均衡汇率水平外，多数年份都存在不同程度的错位；近几年来人民币实际汇率并不存在着严重低估，甚至还存在着一定程度的高估。因此，我们应坚持汇率制度改革的进程，根据国内经济结构和形势变化推进改革，避免受外部力量的影响和干扰。

Abstract: This paper firstly compares some theories and methods for assessing the equilibrium exchange rate, and then applies BEER method to estimate RMB’s real equilibrium exchange rate and its mi-salignment. The cointegration equation indicates that the increment of net foreign assets, the im-provement of the terms of trade and the increment of the ratio between the price of non-traded goods and that of traded goods will drive RMB real exchange rate appreciation while the enhance of trade openness will drive RMB real exchange rate depreciation. And the misalignment result shows that misalignment of RMB’s real exchange rate exists in most periods of the observed periods. The current RMB real exchange rate is a little overvalued instead of undervalued. We should insist on the process of exchange rate reform and carry forward it gradually depending on our economic structure and situation.