我国海洋经济发展规律分析及产业结构变化预测

Development Tendency Analysis and Industrial Structure Change Forecast of Chinese Marine Economic

摘要: 中国海岸线绵长，海洋经济历史悠久，海洋资源丰富，并有坚实平稳的大陆经济与沿海区域经济为基础，近年来我国海洋经济一直保持着稳定上升的良好发展态势。本文根据1996~2013年期间我国海洋经济总产值、增加值及其产业结构的变化规律，利用产业生命周期理论和成长曲线法，对我国2020年海洋产业发展趋势进行预测分析。对比目前发达国家海洋经济情况，认为应该继续加大海洋经济发展力度，使海洋产业产值持续上升，进一步优化海洋产业结构。

Abstract: China has long coastline, abundant marine natural resources, and also has a long history of marine economy based on the stable mainland economy and regional economy in the coastal. In recent years, the development tendency of Chinese marine economy keeps increasing steadily. In this ar-ticle, through analyzing the changes of the gross marine economy output value, added value and the change law of marine industrial structure of China from 1996 to 2013, the tendency of Chinese marine industrial structure development in 2020 is predicted by the methods of “growth curve approach” and “industry life cycle theory”. Compared with the developed countries, it is believed that China should continue to intensify marine economy development, thereby maintain increasing steadily of gross marine economy output value, and optimize the marine industrial structure further.