摘要:
选取1961~2010年新疆阿勒泰地区阿勒泰市、哈巴河、吉木乃、布尔津、福海、富蕴和青河7个国家级基准、基本气象站月平均低云量、温度、日照时数、相对湿度、水汽压、蒸发、平均风速、积雪深度等相关气象要素。利用线性趋势法、Cubic函数、经验正交函数分解(EOF)，相关分析等方法对阿勒泰近50a低云量气候变化特征及与气象因子的关系进行了分析。结果表明：低云量的季节分布最多的是夏季，其次是春、秋季，最少的是冬季。阿勒泰各站低云量的均值为10.0%~17.4%，其分布自西向东呈低-高-低分布，即低云量呈山麓丘陵向河谷平原增大的趋势。阿勒泰地区大部分站60~70年代低云量以负距平为主，80~21世纪00年代低云量增多，以正距平为主。大部分站低云量的变化趋势呈明显增多趋势，倾向率为0.82%~2.32%/10a，通过了显著水平检验。通过FOF分析可知，阿勒泰地区尽管地形复杂，气候差异大，但低云量的空间分布受大尺度气候的影响是一致的，其次还受明显的地理差异影响。降水、气温、蒸发、日照、平均风速是影响阿勒泰地区低云量长期变化的主要因素，而相对湿度、水汽压的影响较小。
Abstract: The paper selected the average monthly amount of low clouds, temperature, sunshine hours, rela-tive humidity, meteorological elements relevant vapor pressure, evaporation, the average wind speed, snow depth of Habahe, Jimunai, Burqin, Fuhai, Fuyun, Qinghe and Aletai seven national bench- marks from 1961 to 2010 in Aletai region. Using the linear trend method, Cubic function, the empirical orthogonal function (EOF), correlation analysis and other methods to analyze the Aletai near 50A low cloud cover the characteristics of climate change and the relationship with meteorological factors. The results show that: the seasonal distribution of low cloud amount is the largest in summer, followed by spring, autumn, and winter is the least. Mean Aletai station of low cloud amount is 10% - 17.4%, its distribution from West to East is low-high-low, namely a foothills to the valley plain with increasing trend. Most areas of Aletai station 60 - 70 in the low cloud cover were dominated by a negative anomaly, 80 - 21 century 00’s low cloud amount increased, but by a positive anomaly. Most of the station of low cloud amount change trend was significantly increased, the tendency rate was 0.82% - 2.32%/10a, passed the significant test. Through the FOF analysis, despite the complex terrain and climate variations, the effect of low cloud cover and the spatial distribution of the large scale climate are consistent in Aletai area, and then are also affected by the geographical differences. Precipitation, temperature, evaporation, sunshine, wind are the main factors of long-term change of low cloud amount in Aletai region, while less effect on relative humidity, vapor pressure.