摘要:
选取1961~2010年新疆阿勒泰地区7站月平均低云量，月降水量，利用变差分析、Mann-Kendall、滑动t检验法、相关分析等方法来分析该地区低云量的变化及其与降水量的关系。结果表明：1) 大部分站低云量除冬季外，年及其它季节呈明显增多趋势，以1.1%~1.7%/10a的速率显著增加；2) 大部分站年、春、夏季低云量突变趋势显著，突变的时间为70年代中后期至80年代前期，冬季突变趋势不显著；3) 大部分站年低云量与春、夏、秋季低云量有很好的相关性，尤其和夏季的相关性最好。除冬季低云量外，春、夏、秋季低云量有较好的持续性。
Abstract: By selecting average low cloud cover and monthly precipitation during 1961-2010 of 7 stations in Aletai Area of XinJiang Province, and using variation analysis, Mann-Kendall, sliding t-test method, correlation analysis and so on, the change of low cloud cover and its relationship with precipitation in Aletai Area of Xinjiang Province were analyzed. Our results showed that: 1) for most stations, low cloud cover significantly increased annually and seasonally except winter at the rate of 1.1% - 1.7%/decade; 2) for most stations, the mutation trend of low cloud cover in years, spring and summer was obvious and it occurred from the late 1970s to the early 1980s, while the trend was not significant in winter; 3) the annual low cloud cover of most stations had a good correlation with that of spring, summer and autumn, especially summer. In addition, in most stations, low cloud cover in spring, summer and autumn had good continuity.