基于GM(1,1)模型的云南省能源消费预测研究

Energy Consumption Prediction in Yunnan Province Based on GM(1,1) Model

摘要: 能源对人类生存、经济发展和社会进步至关重要。本文基于云南省能源消费总量的历史数据，建立GM(1,1)模型，使用Matlab软件对云南省未来能源消费总量进行预测。结果表明，云南省未来六年的能源消费量持续增长，此外，该模型的预测精度较高，可以准确预测能源消费量，为云南省制定科学合理的能源消费政策提供重要依据。

Abstract: Energy is essential to human survival, economic development and social progress. Based on the historical data of energy consumption in Yunnan Province, we establish GM(1,1) model and predict total energy consumption in Yunnan province using Matlab software. The results show that energy consumption in Yunnan Province continues to grow in the next six years. In addition, the model of high prediction accuracy can accurately predict the energy consumption. It provides an important basis for the Yunnan making scientific and rational energy consumption policy.