1956~2013年汉江流域降雨和气温变化特性分析

The Characteristic Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature between 1956 and 2013 in the Hanjiang River Basin

摘要: 本文选择汉江流域18个国家气象站的长序列观测资料，采用数理统计、Mann-Kendall检验和Spearman秩次检验法，分别从降雨和气温两个方面，对跨流域调水环境下汉江流域降雨和气温变化特性进行了分析。研究结果表明：1) 丹江口以下流域的多年面均雨量较丹江口以上流域多了158.7 mm；汉江流域温度在1990年以后均出现了明显的升高。2) 经降雨和气温趋势分析可知，汉江流域的降雨无明显的变化趋势，而气温则有显著的升高趋势。3) 在整个汉江流域的降雨无明显变化，而气温显著升高的情况下，考虑到未来跨流域调水以及工农业用水规模的增加，汉江流域水资源量的供需矛盾将不容乐观。

Abstract: In order to evaluate the characteristics and change trend of the surface precipitation and temperature in the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River before the working of the middle route of the South-to- North Water Diversion Project, eighteen meteorological stations were selected. Furthermore, mathematical statistics, Mann-Kendall test and Spearman test were used, and two aspects of temperature and runoff were analyzed based on the meteorological data of the selected stations. The results are as follows. 1) The surface precipitation of the upper drainage area of Hanjiang River basin is 158 mm more than that of the lower drainage area; the temperature of the whole basin has been raised since 1990. 2) After trend analysis, it unfolds that the change trends of the rain-time series in this region are not noticeable, but the temperature shows a significant rise. 3) The imbalance between water supply and demand in the lower Hanjiang River basin will be very conspicuous, if there are not any engineering and non-engineering actions to take.