人类活动环境影响下流域水网区产水量变化分析

Water Production Change Analysis for River Basins Water Network under Influence of Human Activities

摘要: 流域平原水网区产水量变化的主要影响因素表现为气候(降水量、蒸发量)和下垫面(土地利用)的改变，在较长时期尺度上，气候变化对产水量的影响明显，但在短时期内，由于经济社会快速发展，人类活动改变了水自然循环的空间格局和演变过程，加剧了产水量形成与变化的复杂性，下垫面变化是产水量变化的重要驱动因素之一。本文建立包括水田、旱地及非耕地、建设用地和水面四种下垫面类型的流域平原水网区产水量模型，以太湖流域为例，分析建国以来不同时期下垫面的产水量和产水模数变化、产水量与面积之间的关系，得出下垫面变化对水资源量空间分布的影响等结论。

Abstract: Water production change of hydrographic net area watershed is mainly caused by climate (precipitation, evaporation) changes and underlying surface (land use) changes. Climate change impacts on water yield significantly on a long-time scale, but in the short term, due to the rapid economic and social development, human activity alters the spatial patterns and processes of natural water cycle and adds the complexity of formation and changes in water production. Underlying surface change is one of the main drivers that influence water yield. This paper established water production model in plain hydrographic net area with four types of underlying surface, which are paddy fields, dry and non-arable land, construction land and water. It took Tai Lake basin as an example to analyze the variation of water production and runoff modulus in different periods since the foundation of the People’s Republic of China, and the relationship between water production and land area. This article concluded the effect of changing in the underlying surface on spatial distribution of water resources.