超高压直流输电系统可靠性预测方法

A Reliability Prediction Method for HVDC Power Transmission Systems

摘要: 本文提出了超高压直流输电系统可靠性预测的数学模型及工程方法。采用能量可用率评价超高压直流输电系统的可靠性，使用从统计期间扣除计划停运小时的能量可用率与检修系数评价超高压直流输电系统的固有可靠性，采用幂函数表示检修系数的数学模型。在统计超高压直流输电系统可靠性历史数据的基础上，确定检修系数的统计值与幂函数的待定参数。根据超高压直流输电系统的计划检修天数、降额系数与检修系数的数学模型，提前两年预测超高压直流输电系统的能量可用率。给出了超高压直流输电系统可靠性预测结果的验证方法以及天广、高肈与江城等三个超高压直流输电工程的可靠性预测实例。应用超高压直流输电系统的可靠性预测方法，可以提前两年确定超高压直流输电系统能量可用率的预测值，为超高压直流输电系统的可靠性目标管理提供了依据。

Abstract: A mathematical model and engineering methods for the reliability prediction of HVDC power transmission systems are presented. The energy availability is used to evaluate HVDC power transmission system reliability, making use of the energy availability deducted scheduled outage hours from period hours and the maintenance factor to evaluate HVDC power transmission sys-tem inherent reliability, and a mathematical model for the maintenance factor is shown by the power function. Based on statistical historical reliability data of HVDC power transmission sys-tems, statistical values of the maintenance factor and undetermined parameters of the power function are determined. According to scheduled outage days, the outage derating factor and a mathematical model of the maintenance factor of HVDC power transmission systems, the energy availability of HVDC power transmission systems can be predicted in the next two years. The re-liability verification method for prediction results of HVDC power transmission systems is given, together with reliability prediction examples of three HVDC power transmission projects, such as Tianshengqiao to Guangzhou, Gaopo to Zhaoqing and Jiangling to Echeng HVDC power transmission projects. By using reliability the prediction method for HVDC power transmission systems, predictive values of the energy availability of HVDC power transmission systems can be determined in the next two years, which provide the basis for the reliability target management of HVDC power transmission systems.