南疆近55年棉播期气温变化的小波分析

Wavelet Analysis of Temperature Variations in Southern Xinjiang during Cotton Seeding Period in Recent 55 Years

摘要: 本文以南疆区域15个代表气象站1961~2015年4月份(即棉播期)的月平均气温观测数据为基础，利用线性趋势分析、Morlet小波分析等方法，分析近55年来南疆区域棉播期平均气温变化趋势、平均气温时间序列的小波周期和方差变化特征。结果表明：近55年，南疆区域棉播期平均气温呈现明显的上升趋势，升温速率为0.32℃/10a，但年际间波动明显；棉播期平均气温主要存在4个明显的周期变化，分别是6~8a、12~14a、16~20a、24~27a，其中6~8a的振荡周期最为显著；小波方差有3个峰值：7a周期的振动最强，其次是4a，再次为18a，7a为近55年时间段的主要周期。

Abstract: Based on the data of April, i.e. cotton seeding period, average temperature of Southern Xinjiang from 1961 to 2015, linear analysis, Morlet Wavelet analysis are used to reveal the average tem-perature trend of cotton seeding period and the characteristics of Wavelet change in recent 55 years. The results show that the average temperature of cotton seeding period increases annually and the climate tendency rate is 0.32˚C/10a. There are four characteristics on time scale: 6 - 8a, 12 - 14a, 16 - 20a and 24 - 27a. There are also three peaks of variance, 7a, 4a and 18a, and the charac-teristic time scale of 7a is dominant period in recent 55 years.