基于回归分析的政策营销效果定量研究—以我国的“新农合”政策为例

Quantitative Study of Policy Marketing by Regression Analysis—Taking the “New Rural Cooperative Medical Policy” as an Example

摘要: 政策营销已经成为公共管理中一种新兴的范式，因此对其效果的测量与反思将直接影响该种方式的使用和推广。本文采用定量分析方法，构建Logistic回归及多元回归模型对新农合政策营销的效果及其影响因素进行了量化分析。结果表明，新农合政策虽然在一定程度和一定范围内的营销效果较为显著，但也存在着诸如政府主导过剩，村民参与不足，营销说服方式有悖伦理，营销主体不明确，营销内容不够与时俱进，营销方法不够多元化等一系列实际问题。应及时对营销产品予以更新，切实以营销受众为主体，并注意对营销说服的方式和策略进行改进。

Abstract: Policy marketing has become a kind of new public management paradigm, and therefore, the measurement of effect and reflections will directly influence the use of the method and its promo-tion. This paper uses the quantitative analysis method, making contributions to new farming by Logistic regression and multiple regression model to quantify the effect of policy marketing analysis. The survey shows that the new rural cooperative medical policy has been well publicized and popularized to a certain degree and the marketing effect is fairly remarkable, but a series of prob-lems is remained, such as excess government intervention, lack of villagers’ participation, mar-keting mode contrary to ethics, unclear subject, not enough marketing content to keep pace with the times, the monotonous marketing methods and so on. What we should do is updating marketing products in a timely manner, regarding the audience for marketing as the real main body and paying attention to the improvements of ways and strategies of persuasion on marketing.