基于蒙特卡洛模拟的发电厂继电保护定值风险评估

The Risk Assessment of Power Plant Relay Protection Setting Value Based on the Monte-Carlo Simulation

摘要: 发电厂继电保护定值一旦失效会引发输送功率的损失，甚至造成严重的停电事故。为了使继电保护定值科学有效，本文对保护定值进行了风险评估。首先基于蒙特卡洛法对保护定值的运行状态进行仿真模拟；然后提出了发电厂继电保护定值风险的定义及评估指标；最后利用实际算例验证了该方法的可行性。

Abstract: Once the setting value of power plant relay protection becomes invalid, there must be losses of power, and it even causes serious outage. In order to make the setting value more utility, the risk assessment of setting value is presented in this paper. First of all, Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the states of setting values; then the definition and indicator of the risk assessment of setting value are introduced; at last, a practical example is used to verify the feasibility of the method proposed in this paper.