城镇职工基本养老保险基金系统动力学模型分析

System Dynamics Model Analysis on Basic Endowment Insurance Fund of Town Employees

摘要: 根据城镇职工养老保险制度的相关规定，结合人社部公报和统计年鉴的数据，构建了城镇职工养老保险基金收支的系统动力学模型，以老化链人口模型取代传统生命表预测模型，预测了20年内的养老保险基金的收支情况，测算了基金在目标期内能否保持平衡，并针对影响平衡的主要因素提出相关意见，以确保保险基金的有效运行。

Abstract: According to the relevant provisions of endowment insurance system for urban workers, a system dynamics model for urban workers pension fund payments is built based on the data from Ministry of Human Resources and Social Bulletin and Statistical Yearbook. With population aging chain model instead of traditional forecasting model, the system dynamics model predicts the income and expenditure of the fund in the next 20 years, estimates the balance of the fund in the target period, and makes relevant comments on the main factors affecting the balance to ensure the effective operation.