湖南省生活需水量预测

Life Water Demand Forecasting for Hunan Province

摘要: 本文采用定额法与指数平滑法预测湖南省不同规划水平年生活需水量。结果显示，此方法计算2014年生活用水量误差较小；采用定额法预测居民生活需水量在2020年和2030年均有不同幅度的上升，且目前欠发达地区的居民生活需水量在2020~2030年间的增长率明显高于目前较发达城市；城镇公共用水预测采用指数平滑法，本文取Holt线性趋势、Brown线性趋势、阻尼趋势三者预测的需水量均值为规划水平年的预测值。结果显示，湖南省各市城镇公共需水量在规划水平年有显著增长，2020~2030年间平均增长率高于2015~2020年。

Abstract: This paper forecasts the life water demand of Hunan province for planned years with quota method and exponential smoothing principle. The results show that the calculated life water consumption is relatively accurate in 2014. Residents living water demand shows different rises in 2020 and 2030 based on the quota method, and the rising rate from 2020 to 2030 in less developed cities is higher than that of the developed regions. Using the exponential smoothing method to forecast public water demand in cities, this article used the average value of Holt linear trends, Brown linear trend and damping as the forecasting value in planned years. There has been a sharp growth for public water demand in planned years, and the mean rising rate from 2020 to 2030 is higher than the rate from 2015 to 2020.