基于ARIMA模型的中国老龄化人口预测研究

Research on the Prediction of China’s Aging Population Based on ARIMA Model

摘要: 随着中国人民的生活水平达到小康水平，精神物质得到进一步保障，人口平均寿命逐渐向后延迟。人口老龄化问题必然出现，相继的问题也随之出现。这样的问题对于一个发展中国家来讲是非常有挑战性的，也是非常棘手的。本文利用ARIMA模型来对中国老龄化人口进行短期预测，通过对老龄人口的短期预测，我们可以发现目前我国的老龄化形势相当严峻，同时针对目前我国所面临的人口老龄化所产生的一些社会问题提供了一些政策性的建议。

Abstract: With the Chinese people’s living standards achieving a well-off level, the spiritual material is fur-ther protected, and the average life expectancy is extended gradually. Hence aging population appears inevitably, and other problems emerge with it. It is quite a challenge for a developing country, which is very difficult to deal with. In this paper, the ARIMA model is used to forecast the China’s aging population in a short term. We can find that the current situation of China’s population ageing is quite severe, and some policy suggestions are proposed aimed at solving the social problems currently produced from China’s aging population.