基于数据驱动的贵州水资源智能配置研究

Study on Water Resources Intellectual Allocation in Guizhou on Account of Data Drive

摘要: 随着经济的快速发展和人口的急剧增加，水资源危机日益严重。现阶段研究贵州偏远山区水资源的是否能够满足当地人们的需求以及是否合理利用显得尤为重要。本文主要基于数据驱动研究贵州山区水资源，建立最大可支撑人口模型和GM(1,1)灰色预测模型，研究当前贵州省的水资源承载力以及预测未来该地区的水资源承载力，进而得出贵州省的水资源总量相当丰富。丰富的水资源要得以合理优化的配置，进而建立基于AHP的模糊综合评价模型对贵州省水资源智能优化配置做出合理的评价方案。

Abstract: With the rapid development of the economy and the dramatic growth of population, the intensifying crisis of water resource has raised common concern. In the current stage, it is extremely important to make researches on whether the water resource in Guizhou’s remote mountain areas is capable of satisfying local demands and whether it is rational utilized. This thesis studies the water resource in Guizhou Province mainly on account of data drive; in accordance with the largest supporting population model and GM(1,1) Grey Forecasting Model, it studies the current water resource capacity of Guizhou Province, and predicts the future water resource capacity of the area, thus drawing a conclusion that water resource in Guizhou is of abundant total volume. As for the allocation that optimizes the abundant water resource, however, it is shown in the researches that the water resource in Guizhou Province is of rather low utilization efficiency and poor mobilization capability. On this basis, a fuzzy synthetic evaluation model is set up based on AHP so as to provide a reasonable evaluation plan of intelligently optimized allocation of water resource in Guizhou Province.