HJAS  >> Vol. 6 No. 6 (December 2016)

    Prediction Model Establishment on Asparagus First Plucking Date in Cao County

  • 全文下载: PDF(381KB) HTML   XML   PP.158-162   DOI: 10.12677/HJAS.2016.66024  
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任崇勇,张 婷:菏泽市气象局,山东 菏泽

芦笋开采期检验曹县Asparagus First Plucking Date Test Cao County


利用2006~2014年曹县芦笋开采期资料和同期气温、降水、日照和相对湿度等气象资料,在分析芦笋开采期与各气象要素相关性的基础上,采用逐步回归法建立了开采期预报模型。结果表明:芦笋开采期与气温和相对湿度呈负相关,其中与1月份气温呈极显著负相关(R = −0.855),说明气温升高,开采期提前,反之,开采期推迟,同时适宜的湿度利于芦笋的萌发及品质的形成。建立的开采期预报方程经2015年验证,效果较好,预报误差1.5 d左右,可应用于实际生产中。

Based on the asparagus first plucking date in Cao County from 2006 to 2014, combined with temperature, precipitation, sunshine and humidity meteorological elements, the correlation between the asparagus first plucking date and meteorological elements was analyzed, and the prediction model of asparagus first plucking date was established by using stepwise regression analysis. The results showed that the asparagus first plucking date was negatively correlated with temperature and humidity, and there was extremely significant negative correlation with temperature in January. This just shows that temperature increased; the first plucking date advanced; conversely, first plucking date delayed (the correlation coefficient was −0.855). Meanwhile, suitable humidity was an advantage to germination and high quality formation. The prediction equation was verified by 2015, and the result was well. The absolute errors were about 1.5 d, which could be applied in actual production.

任崇勇, 张婷. 曹县芦笋开采期预报[J]. 农业科学, 2016, 6(6): 158-162. http://dx.doi.org/10.12677/HJAS.2016.66024