中国热浪和极端强降水变化预估综述
Overview on Projections of Heat Waves and Extreme Heavy Rainfalls in China
DOI: 10.12677/AG.2016.66046, PDF, HTML, XML, 下载: 1,780  浏览: 3,304  科研立项经费支持
作者: 郭晓君, 罗勇, 黄建斌：清华大学地球系统科学中心，北京；赵宗慈：清华大学地球系统科学中心，北京；中国气象局国家气候中心，北京
关键词: 综述；预估；热浪；极端强降水；气候模式；中国；Overview； Projection； Heat Waves； Extreme Heavy Rainfalls； Climate Models； China
摘要: 利用全球和区域气候模式，所有研究结果考虑人类排放增加的各种情景，预估的中国暖日和暖夜将增加，冷日和冷夜将减少，中国热浪频次明显增加，强度增强，中国极端强降水频次将可能增加，强度更强，尤以长江流域更明显。当全球温升控制目标从1.5℃增加到5.0℃，中国热浪频次将增加和强度增强，极端强降水的强度和频次也可能增强和增加。例如，考虑RCP8.5高排放情景，当全球达到2℃温升控制目标(约2037~2038年)时，与目前气候(1971~2000年)对比，每年中国热浪日数将增加7天，中国极端强降水量(R99p)将可能增加38毫米。由于气候模式的不确定性以及人类排放情景的复杂性，未来中国气候变化的预估仍存在较大的不确定性，尤其是降水的预估，有待更多的研究做进一步的验证。
Abstract: By use of global and regional climate models, taking into account the various scenarios with the increases of human emissions, both warm days and warm nights in China are projected to increase while the cold days and cold nights are projected to reduce obviously. The frequency and intensity of heat waves in China are projected to increase significantly. The frequency and the intensity of extreme heavy rainfalls in China are projected to likely increase and strengthen, especially along the Yangtze River Valley. As the global annual averaged temperature crosses the different global warming targets (from 1.5˚C to 5.0˚C) relative to the pre-industrial period, the frequency and the intensity of both heat waves and extreme heavy rainfalls in China are projected to increase and enhance. For example, considering the RCP8.5 emission scenario, as global temperature crosses the 2.0˚C global warming target (at around 2037 - 2038), the frequency of the heat waves in China is projected to increase by 7 days. The extreme heavy rainfalls in China (R99p) are projected to likely increase by 38 mm relative to 1971 - 2000. There are still large uncertainties in the future climate change projections due to the uncertainties within climate models, and the complexity of human emissions scenarios, especially rainfall projections, thus more research is needed to be further verified.
文章引用：郭晓君, 赵宗慈, 罗勇, 黄建斌. 中国热浪和极端强降水变化预估综述[J]. 地球科学前沿, 2016, 6(6): 443-449. http://dx.doi.org/10.12677/AG.2016.66046

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