大面积航班延误的事后分析研究

A Study on Postmortem Resonsibility Analysis for Large-Scale Flight Delay

摘要: 为有效降低某一空域未来航班延误发生的可能性，在该空域的一次大面积航班延误结束以后，找出航班运行过程中的航班延误相关影响因素，确定航班延误的主要责任主体尤为重要。通过分析航班运行过程选取了航班延误事后分析指标，建立了航班延误事后分析模型，依据航班计划表和航班实际运行数据确定延误航班的首次延误指标和后续延误指标，根据各个指标的延误责任先后和延误时间加权综合确定航班延误的主要责任主体。以2013年7月18日华北地区某空域的大面积航班延误为例，选取A航班数据采用建立的航班延误事后分析指标体系对延误航班的各项指标取值进行了追溯与计算，确定主要延误责任主体为天气延误，与当日的大规模雷雨天气现象相符。

Abstract: In order to adopt appropriate measures to avoid the occurrence of more flight delays, it’s helpful to identify the weak links in the process of flights running and determine the main responsible units for flight delays by analyzing postmortem responsibility of large-scale flight delays. Postmortem analysis indicator is selected by analyzing the process of flights running and a two-layer postmortem analysis indicator system is built by classifying these indicators into different responsibility units. A model of postmortem analysis for flight delays is established to identify the first delay indicator and the subsequent delay indicator according to flight schedules and flight actual operating data and to determine the main responsible unit of flight delays by calculating the responsibility order and time of delay of each indicator with weights, for example, in July 18, 2013 in North China airspace of a large area of flight delays with the A flight data. By using established flight delays post-hoc analysis index system delayed flights, the indicators values are calculated retrospectively. At last, it’s confirmed that the major delay responsible unit is weather delay that is realistic with the day of large-scale thunderstorm weather phenomenon.