我国出口贸易与人均GDP增长的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on Relationship between Export and per Capita GDP of China

摘要: 本文以《中国统计年鉴》中1991~2014年的数据为基础，对我国出口与人均GDP增长的关系进行实证分析。通过对出口和人均GDP序列的平稳性检验，运用Engle-Granger两步法进行协整检验，最后建立误差修正模型。结果表明：我国出口对人均GDP增长具有极强的拉动作用，二者之间存在着长期稳定的动态均衡关系。

Abstract: This paper analyzes the relationship of export and per capita GDP in China based on the data of 1991-2014 in China Statistical Yearbook. Through the stationarity test and co-integration test by Engle-Granger method on exports and per capita GDP series, we establish the error correction model. The results show that China’s exports have a strong positive effect on per capita GDP growth; there is a long-term stable dynamic equilibrium relationship between them.