临汾盆地近40年气候变化特征分析

Analysis of Climatic Variations of Linfen Basin in Recent 40 Years

摘要: 利用临汾盆地17个气象观测站1977~2015年近40年气候要素观测资料，采用线性倾向估计、累积距平等统计分析方法，初步分析了临汾盆地气候变化特征。分析结果表明：临汾盆地近40年平均气温为11.5℃，年平均降水为498.3 mm，气温和降水整体呈现出上升的趋势，其中气温的气候变化率为0.29℃/10a，通过了信度检验，符合全球变暖的气候背景；而年降水的气候变化率为5.40 mm/10a，趋势变化不明显，符合了中国地区平均降水的情况。春、夏、秋、冬四季的平均气温分别为12.7℃、23.5℃、11.3℃、−0.7℃，其中春季的平均与年平均气温12.4℃最为接近；春、夏、秋、冬四季的平均降水分别占全年降水的17.2%、54.7%、24.7%、3.4%，其中夏季对年降水的贡献最大，其次分别为秋季、春季和冬季。临汾盆地年平均气温年代际变化整体呈现出“增加–稳定”趋势，年平均降水年代际变化整体呈现出“下降–增加”趋势。临汾盆地季节变化中，气温年代际变化在春季呈现出“稳定–减少”趋势，夏季呈现出“增加–稳定”趋势，秋季和冬季呈现出一致增加趋势；降水年代际变化在春季和夏季的降水一致呈现出减少的趋势，而则秋季和冬季的降水一致呈现出“减少–增加”的趋势。

Abstract: Based on the observation data of climatic factors in 17 meteorological observation stations in Linfen basin from 1977 to 2015, the climatic variations of Linfen basin were analyzed by means of linear tendency estimation and cumulative statistical analysis. The results show that the annual average atmospheric temperature and the annual average precipitation was 498.3mm in the past 40 years was 11.5˚C. The atmospheric temperature and precipitation of the Linfen basin both have showed an upward trend. The climatic change rate of annual temperature was 0.29˚C/10a, which passes the reliability test and accords with global warming climate background. The climatic change rate of annual precipitation was 5.40mm/10a, and the trend was not obvious, which accords with the average precipitation in China. The average atmospheric temperature in spring, summer, autumn and winter was 12.7˚C, 23.5˚C, 11.3˚C and −0.7˚C. The average temperature in spring, the annual average atmospheric temperature was 12.4˚C, which was closest to the average temperature in spring. The average precipitation in spring, summer, autumn and winter which accounted for 17.2%, 54.7%, 24.7% and 3.4% of the annual precipitation respectively. The summer precipitation contributed the most to the precipitation, followed by autumn, spring and winter. The inter-decadal variation of annual mean atmospheric temperature in Linfen basin showed a trend of “increasing-stabilizing”, and the inter-decadal variation of annual mean precipitation showed a trend of “decreasing-increasing”. The interdecadal variation of atmospheric temperature in the spring showed a trend of “stabilization-reduction” and a trend of “increasing-stabilizing” in summer, which also showed a consistent increase trend in autumn and winter. The interdecadal variation of precipitation in spring and summer presented a decrease trend, which showed a trend of “decreasing-increasing” in autumn and winter.