江西省“三驾马车”的协整分析

The Cointegration Analysis of “Troika”in Jiangxi Province

摘要: 在宏观经济中，消费、投资与净出口构成了社会总需求的三大组成部分，被比喻为拉动经济增长的“三驾马车”。基于江西省1990-2015年的统计数据，分析了三驾马车与经济增长之间的对比关系，并运用协整模型和误差修正模型，研究了三驾马车之间的长期均衡关系和短期非均衡关系。结果显示：消费率呈现逐渐下降的趋势，投资率呈现逐渐上升的发展态势，净出口率缓慢变化，但呈现负数；从贡献率来看，消费贡献率明显偏低，投资贡献率相对偏高，净出口贡献率较小；三驾马车之间存在长期均衡关系；短期内，消费对出口产生较大影响，而消费对投资、投资对出口均产生微弱的影响。针对研究结果，提出了促进三驾马车协调发展，实现江西中部崛起的相关建议。

Abstract: In macroeconomic, consumption, investment and net exports constitute the three components of aggregate demand, which has been compared to the troika to drive economic growth. Based on the statistical data in Jiangxi province 1990-2015, this paper analyzes the relationship between the troika and economic growth, and studies the troika long-term equilibrium and short- term disequilibrium relationship by using co-integration model and error correction model. Results showed that the consumption rate showed a trend of gradual decline, the investment rate rising gradually development momentum, and net exports slowly changing, but presented negative; From the point of contribution rate, consumption contribution rate is obviously low, investment contribution rate is relatively high, and the net export contribution rate is smaller. There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between troika; In the short term, consumption has great influence on the exports, but has weak impact on exports, and investment has weak impact on exports. Finally, according to the results of the study, this paper put forward to related suggestions, which promote coordinated development of troika, and achieve Jiangxi rising in central region.