环境规划中环境承载力分析不宜被生态承载力测算替代

Environmental Carrying Capacity Should Not Be Replaced by Ecological Carrying Capacity in Environmental Planning

摘要: 当前环境规划中有用生态承载力测算代替环境承载力研究的现象。生态承载力分析要点是资源，环境承载力的研究要点是环境容量与人类活动的阈值。环境规划的目标是既要保持经济持续发展，又要提升环境质量，将各种排污总量控制在环境容量之内。任务就是要测算与提升环境承载力，可以根据区域监测、统计数据，建立系统动力学的多目标优化模型，进行科学分析；对可能的发展模式进行讨论，预测各种模式下经济、能源、环境的发展趋势并测算多项阈值。生态足迹法是用生产性土地的面积来评估生态承载力，难直接评价人类活动阈值。因此环境规划中不宜用生态承载力替代环境承载力进行测算。

Abstract: At present, there is a phenomenon that the analysis of environmental carrying capacity has been replaced by the analysis of ecological carrying capacity in some environmental planning. Ecological carrying capacity focuses on resources, and the keys of environmental carrying capacity include environmental capacity and human activity thresholds. The purpose of environmental planning is to coordinate the economic development and environmental protection, improve the environmental carrying capacity, and control the total emission within the environmental capacity. An important mission of planning is predicting the economic, energy and environmental trends under several scenarios, calculating environmental carrying capacity thresholds by establishing a multi-objective System Dynamics model based on regional monitored and statistic data for a more scientific analysis. Ecological footprint method is to use the area of productive land to assess the ecological carrying capacity, but it is difficult to evaluate the human activity thresholds directly. Therefore, in the compiling of environmental planning, the environmental carrying capacity should not be replaced by ecological carrying capacity analysis.