新疆鄯善县近55年高温天气气候特征分析

The High Temperature Climatic Characteristics of Xinjiang Shanshan in the Past 55 Years

摘要: 利用1961~2015年鄯善国家基本气象观测站4~9月逐日最高气温资料，使用线性趋势、t-检验法，统计分析鄯善县高温天气的气候特征及预报经验公式。结果表明：1) 近55年鄯善县高温日数具有明显的年际变化，高温日数分布整体呈逐年上升的趋势，高温日以2.4 d/10a的速率增加；2) 一般性高温、酷热高温初日缓慢提前，终日缓慢推迟，高温期呈逐渐增长的趋势；3) 强高温天气预报经验公式，对鄯善县强高温天气具有较强的预报能力。

Abstract: Based on daily maximum temperature from meteorological station in Shanshan from 1961 to 2015 (April to September), the high temperature weather climate features and the formulas of high temperature forecast were analyzed by using the methods of linear regression and T-test. The results showed that: 1) In the past 55 years, the high temperature in Shanshan county has a distinct annual change, and the high temperature daily distribution is increasing year by year, the high temperature day is increasing at 2.4 d/10a; 2) General high temperature and extremely hot weather of Beginning Date is ahead of time, the Last Date is presented a delay trend, and the high temperature period is gradually increasing; 3) The empirical formula for high temperature weather has strong capability of forecasting the high temperature weather in Shanshan county.