基于优化GM(1,1)灰色模型预测成都市老年人口

Prediction of Population Aging in Chengdu: A Study Based on Optimized Grey GM(1,1) Model

摘要: 以2009~2016年成都市老年人口数据资料为依据，通过优化的GM(1,1)模型和新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型，借助Matlab软件编程计算和检验，用该模型预测了成都市2017~2022年老龄人口规模，并对预测结果进行了分析。模型精度检验表明模型精度为较好，模型预测结果可靠性高、可信度强，模型适合人口中长期预测。

Abstract: On the basis of data of 2009~2016 population aging, the paper uses Optimized Grey GM(1,1) model and metabolic GM(1,1) model, with testing and programming calculation of MATLAB software, to predict population aged 60 and older between 2017~2022 of Chengdu City. Model accuracy test shows that the model accuracy is good. The model prediction results are high reliability and be-lievability. The model is suitable for the long-term prediction of population.