留在农村，还是继续进城?—返乡农民工分化及土地权益在其中的作用调查研究

Stay at Rural, or Still Return to Urban?—An Investigation on the Differentiation of Returning Migrant Workers and the Role of Land Rights

摘要: 2008 年国际金融危机后返乡农民工发生了分化，在行为选择上面临着留在农村还是继续进城的二元选择。本文通过统计描述和独立样本t 检验，对安徽省调查的数据进行了分析。统计描述发现，以体力劳动为主的城市非正规劳动市场最容易受到金融危机等宏观经济波动的影响。独立样本的t 检验的结果表明，返乡农民工分化在性别和务工收入上的均值存在显著差异。女性农民工更倾向留在农村，而男性农民工更倾向继续进城务工；相对于留在农村的农民工而言，倾向继续进城的农民工发生土地流转较少，且放弃承包地意愿也较低。务工收入越高的农民工更倾向继续进城务工，而务工收入较低的则倾向留在农村。因此本文认为，返乡农民工在留在农村还是继续进城的二元选择上存在显著的性别分化和收入分化，土地收入–保险效应对返乡农民工分化产生了重要影响。

Abstract: After the financial crisis in 2008, the differentiation of returning migrant workers took place at the same time when returning migrant workers faced with binary choice between staying at rural and returning to urban. This article analyses the survey data collected in Anhui Province by the means of descriptive statistics and independent samples T-test. Statistical description indicates that the urban informal labor market with physical labor is the most vulnerable to the macro-economic fluctuations, such as the financial crisis. Independent samples T-test shows that there are significant differences at the mean of gender and urban wage income. Female migrant workers are inclined to stay at rural, while the male tends to return to urban. Comparing with the migrant workers who tend to stay at rural, those who are willing to return to urban has a lower percentage of participation in land circulation, and their willing to abandon land contractual right is lower too. The migrant workers who gain a higher urban wage income are more likely to return to urban, while the others tend to stay at rural. Therefore, this article concludes that there are significant differentiations of gender and income in the binary choice between staying at rural and returning to urban, and the effect of land income-insurance has an important impact on the differentiation of returning migrant workers.