界定中国退休年龄的统计研究

How to Estimate China Retirement Age by the Statistics

摘要: 根据联合国标准，中国已进入老龄化社会。为应对老龄化社会带来的社会经济弊端，中国与多数国家一样采用延迟退休的策略。本文研究延迟退休策略的核心问题——延迟的工作年限数。采用国际比较的方法，收集整理不同发展水平的70个国家数据；测算各国预期受教育时间长度、预期寿命长度和平均工作年限等观察值；拟合全球平均工作年限的随机分布，服从Logistic分布；计算平均工作年限的-及其拐点；界定中国退休年龄。研究结果表明，中国需要延迟7年工作年限，其平均工作年限才能达到世界平均水平。

Abstract: According to United Nations standards, China has entered the aging society. In order to deal with the social and economic disadvantages brought about by the aging society, China has adopted the strategy of delaying retirement as in most countries. In this paper, the core problem of delayed retirement strategy is studied. By using the methods of international comparison, the data of 70 nations at different levels of development were collected; the expecting average schooling year, lifespan, and average working life were calculated; the random distribution of the global average working life was fitting, which obeyed the Logistic distribution; the inflection point and the average working life were calculated; and China’s retirement age was defined. The results show that China needs to delay the working life for 7 years, so that the average years of working can reach the world average.