基于事故树法的学生公寓火灾风险分析

Fire Risk Analysis of Student Apartment Based on Accident Tree Method

摘要: 针对学生公寓具有火灾蔓延快、人员疏散困难等火灾特性，一旦发生火灾容易造成群死群伤这一问题，本文通过学生公寓火灾事故的调查分析，归纳总结事故致因因素，利用事故树分析法(FTA)考虑各项基本事件的概率，并进行定性和定量分析。计算出最小径集和最小割集，结合其结构重要度、概率重要度、临界重要度的分析，辨识其危险性，找出控制事故发生的途径，得出此类事故的预防措施，消除学生公寓安全系统中存在火灾的隐患。这对类似火灾事故的预防具有一定指导性意义。

Abstract: In view of the fire characteristic of fast fire spread and difficult evacuation in the student’s apartment, once the fire happens, it is prone to cause group death. The cause of the accident is summarized and analyzed by the investigation and analysis of the fire accident in the student’s apartment. The probability of the basic events is considered by the accident tree analysis (FTA) method, and qualitative and quantitative analysis was carried out. The minimum path set and the minimum cut set are calculated, and the risk is identified by the analysis of its structural importance, probability importance and critical importance. The ways to control the accident are found, and the prevention measures for such accidents are obtained to eliminate the fire hidden in the student’s apartment safety system. It has certain guiding significance for preventing similar fire accidents.