气候变化对地区脆弱性的影响

The Impact of Climate Change on Regional Vulnerability

摘要: 全球气候正在恶化，气候变化通过影响国家的凝聚力、经济、政治、社会间接影响着国家的脆弱性。首先，先通过聚类分析将国家划分为脆弱、易脆弱、稳定三个等级，然后引入FSI (fragile states index)的概念，通过逐步分析气候变化对凝聚指标、经济指标、政治指标、社会指标的影响，结合实际和主观判断确定气候变化对各个指标影响的权重，最后确定了气候变化对国家脆弱性影响的线性模型。然后，从十大脆弱国家中选择苏丹为研究目标。引入CCI (climate change influence)的概念，计算得到2009年气候变化对苏丹国家脆弱性的影响指数为4.395%。如果没有气候影响，利用线性模型计算，国家脆弱性会降低1.713。其次，使用曲线拟合描述FSI随时间的变化，建立预测模型，得出印度FSI随时间变化趋势。根据模型中设定的划分标准，2014年是印度从易脆弱变成脆弱的临界点。最后，对以上模型进行了改进，考虑干预措施对气候变化的影响，进而减小对国家脆弱性的影响，用CCPI衡量干预强度，干预越大影响越大。因此，在各国干预后，采用CCPI计算不同的FSI。

Abstract: The global climate is deteriorating. Climate change indirectly affects a country’s fragility by in-fluencing national cohesion, economy, politics and society. Firstly, we divide countries into three levels: fragile, vulnerable, and stable, by cluster analysis. And then, we introduce the concept of FSI (fragile states index), which includes four first level indexes: cohesion, economic, political and social indicators. Under each first level index, we select 3 secondary indexes additionally. We determine the weight of climate change impacts on individual indicators in combination with the actual and subjective factors, and finally determine the linear model of climate change impacts on the country’s fragility. Secondly, Sudan was chosen from the top 10 most fragile states as the research goal. We introduce the concept of CCI (climate change influence). We calculate that the index of climate change impact on the fragility of Sultan in 2009 is 4.395%. Without climate impact, using linear models to calculate, country’s fragility would be reduced by 1.713. Thirdly, we describe the change of FSI with time by curve fitting. And the prediction model is established, and the trend of FSI in Indian with time is obtained. 2014 was India’s tipping point from vulnerability to frailty, according to the criteria set in the model. At last, we have improved the model by considering that state driven interventions on climate change can reduce the impact of climate change on fragility of that country, changing the constant coefficient into a variable, using CCPI to measure the intensity of interventions. Therefore, CCPI is used to calculate the different FSI after the intervention in each country.