利用多水平模型讨论地区生产总值影响因素

The Influence Factors of Regional GDP Are Discussed by Using Multi-Level Model

摘要: 利用多水平模型讨论地区生产总值影响因素。方法：以河北省15年统计年鉴中11市的132个县(市)的主要国民经济指标研究对象，以132个县(市)为第一水平，以11个地级市为第二水平，拟合两水平模型进行地区生产总值影响因素的分析。结果：该数据在地级市间存在聚集性，应用多水平模型后得到，工业总产值对河北省各县(市)生产总值有较大影响，全社会资产投资额、地方公共财政预算收入、城镇在岗职工工资总额、农林牧渔业总产值、社会消费品零售总额、城乡居民储蓄存款年末余额对地区生产总值也有一定程度的正面影响。其各变量皆为固定效应。讨论：多水平模型适用于层次结构数据，具有众多优点。从地级市角度来控制地区生产总值更有效。

Abstract: The influence factors of regional GDP are discussed by using multi-level model. Methods: The re-search objects are the major national economic indicators of 11 cities of 132 counties (cities) that come from the Hebei Statistic Almanac of 2015. Taking 132 counties (cities) as the first level and 11 prefecture-level cities as the second level, the two-level model was fitted to analyze the influencing factors of regional GDP. Results: The data were clustered in prefecture-level cities. After applying the multi-level model, it can be concluded that the total industrial output value has a great influence on the GDP of each county (city) in Hebei province. Assets investment in the whole society, local public finance budget revenue, town on-the-job worker total wages, animal husbandry fishery output value, total retail sales of social consumer goods, urban and rural residents savings at the end of the balance of regional GDP has a certain degree of positive influence. All variables are fixed effects. Discussion: The multi-level model is applicable to hierarchical data and has many advantages. It is more effective to control regional GDP from the perspective of prefecture-level cities.