经济电力传导模型与蒙特卡洛模拟组合在电网企业决策中的应用

Application of Economic-Electricity Transmission and Monte Carlo Simulation Combination in Power Grid Enterprise Operation

摘要: 企业盈利能力预测是企业发展战略和投资决策的关键前提。本文阐述了企业盈利能力预测具体实现过程所涉及的宏观经济变化及企业内部经营不同影响因素，并依据理论指导和历史数据评估出不同影响因素的概率分布情况，以企业利润为指标，运用经济电力传导法和蒙特卡洛的方法模拟组合，建立电网企业盈利能力预测模型，从而得出经营指标概率分布，评估经营风险，分析多因素不确定性及其相互作用对经营活动的影响程度，为经营决策提供更全面的数据支撑。

Abstract: Prediction of enterprise profitability is the key prerequisite for enterprise development strategy and investment decision. This paper expounds the macro-economy changes and the different in-fluence factors on the internal management of enterprises involved in the concrete realization process of the enterprise profitability prediction, and according to the theoretical guidance and historical data, the probability distribution of different influence factors is evaluated. Taking the profit of the enterprise as the index, the model of the profitability prediction of the power grid en-terprise is set up by using the method of economic electricity transmission and Monte Carlo. Thus, in order to provide more comprehensive data support for business decision, the probability dis-tribution of management index is obtained, management risk is evaluated, and the influence de-gree of multi factor uncertainty and its interaction on business activities is analyzed.