不同时空尺度下新安江模型参数敏感性分析

Parameters Sensitivity Analysis of the Xin’anjiang Model under Different Temporal and Spatial Scales

摘要: 流域水文过程在不同时空下表现出不同的规律和特征，使得对水文过程进行概化描述的水文模型也具有明显的时空不均匀性。以福建闽江建溪流域为研究对象，在不同时间尺度和空间尺度下应用新安江模型，应用基于Monte Carlo法和Sobol敏感性分析法，比较研究参数的敏感性及变化规律。结果表明：新安江模型的模拟精度随时间尺度增大先增高后降低；通过定性和定量分析确定的敏感参数主要有KE、KI、CI、CG、N和NK，参数敏感性随时空尺度改变而规律变化；随着时间尺度的增大，KE、KG和CI的敏感度降低，N和CG的敏感度增强；随着空间尺度的增大，CG敏感度降低，时间尺度的改变对KE、CG的敏感度影响减弱。

Abstract: The hydrological process shows different laws and characteristics in different time and space, contri-buting to hydrological models which generalize hydrological processes also having obvious spatial and temporal heterogeneity. The Xin’anjiang model was applied for runoff simulation at different time and spatial scales at the Jianxi in Fujian Province. In the basin, the sensitivity and variation were studied and compared based on Monte Carlo and Sobol sensitivity analysis methods respectively. The results show that the simulation accuracy of the Xin’anjiang model increases first and then decreases with time scale. The sensitive parameters determined by qualitative and quantitative analysis mainly include KE, KI, CI, CG, N and NK. The parameter sensitivity changes with time and space scale and changes regularly. With the increase of time scale, the sensitivity of KE, KG and CI decreases, and the sensitivity of N and CG increases. With the increase of spatial scale, the sensitivity of CG decreases, and the change in time scale has a weaker effect on the sensitivity of KE and CG.