基于统计建模下共享单车的调查分析与前景预测

Investigation and Prospect Forecast of Bicycle Sharing Based on Statistical Modeling

摘要: 随着我们进入新时代，共享单车成了绿色出行、易于健康的代名词，但随着时间推移，车辆过度投放、管理无序等问题引起人们担忧；影响使用者满意度的因素众多，本文从使用者基本特征和影响使用者满意度的客观因素两个角度展开研究。首先针对使用者基本特征运用独立性检验与列联分析、针对影响因素运用探索性因子分析和验证性因子分析；其次从使用者基本特征和影响因素两个角度利用Logistic模型进行预测。结果表明：使用者基本特征与使用者满意度存在显著性关系，安全隐患、绿色环保对使用者满意度存在显著性影响。

Abstract: As we enter the new era, bicycle sharing has become synonymous with green travel and easy health. However, any new type of business activity always comes with chaos in the beginning such as barbarous growth and disordered management. Bicycle sharing is no exception. Situations such as disordered placement and severe damage of bicycles are troubling the users. There are many factors affecting the satisfaction of users. This paper studies the basic characteristics of users and the objective factors that affect user satisfaction. Firstly, the independent test and the lining analysis are applied to the basic characteristics of the user, and the exploratory factor analysis and the confirmatory factor analysis are applied to the influencing factors. Secondly, the Logistic model is used to predict from the two aspects of the user’s basic characteristics and influencing factors. The results show that there is a significant relationship between the basic characteristics of users and user satisfaction. Safety hazards and green environmental protection have significant effects on user satisfaction.