一个新的增量货币数量方程式—基于中国的数据分析

A New Quantity Equation of Money Changes—Empirical Analysis Based on Chinese Data

摘要: 本文从Friedman 的货币数量论出发，通过对Friedman 的货币数量方程式的批判性分析，提出了一个新的增量货币数量方程式模型。通过对该模型中各个变量的逻辑关系进行分析，并采用中国1991~2009 年的年度数据为样本进行实证分析，得出了一些有意义的结论。本文的主要结论是，对于货币M0、M1、M2 等货币类型来说，它们的超额货币增长率与价格指数之间的线性关系具有显著、且很强的负相关性。这一主要结论与Friedman 货币数量论的结论完全相反。

Abstract: Based on the Friedman quantity theory of money, by critically analyzing the quantity equation of money, this paper has created a new model of quantity equation of money changes. After analyzing the new model’s logical relations between their variables and applying the Chinese annual data samples during 1991~2009 to the empirical analysis, several significant results have been achieved. The major result of this paper is that, for money such as M0, M1, and M2, a stronger substantial negative linear relationship exists between the excess money growth rate and inflation rate. This result is totally different to the result supposed on the Friedman quantity theory of money.