中国城市居民农产品需求结构研究——基于ELES模型食品消费需求的实证

Research on the Demand Structure of Agricultural Products of Chinese Urban Res-idents—An Empirical Study Based on the ELES Model of Food Consumption Demand

摘要: 农业食品需求是居民的基本性需求，经济社会发展中，居民对食品需求的数量、质量、体量也在发生变化。运用扩展线性支出系统模型ELES，对2017年中国城市居民食品的边际消费倾向、需求收入弹性、基本需求进行实证分析，结果表明：城市居民对粮食、蔬菜、干鲜瓜果类、肉类、水产品具有较强的偏好；城市居民对食品消费需求的增长小于人均可支配收入的增长，这类需求对收入的变化不敏感；城市居民食品消费的重心主要集中于粮食、食用油和蔬菜上，城市居民应当更加注重饮食均衡，食品消费结构需要进一步优化。

Abstract: The demand for agri-food is the basic demand of residents. In economic and social development, the quantity, quality and volume of food demand of residents are also changing. Using the extended linear expenditure system model ELES, an empirical analysis of the marginal propensity to consume, demand income elasticity and basic demand of Chinese urban residents in 2017 shows that urban residents have a strong preference for food, vegetables, dried fruits, meat, and aquatic products. The growth of urban residents’ demand for food consumption is less than the growth of per capita disposable income, which is not sensitive to changes in income. The focus of urban residents’ food consumption is mainly on food, cooking oil and vegetables. Urban residents should pay more attention to the balanced diet and the food consumption structure needs to be further optimized.