动态博弈视角下地下综合管廊PPP项目风险分担

Risk Sharing of Underground Integrated Pipe Gallery PPP Project from the Perspective of Dynamic Game

摘要: 综合管廊PPP项目风险繁多复杂，其涉及的参与方众多，而如何设计出一整套系统科学且适合我国目前发展国情的风险分担机制是确保综合管廊PPP项目成功的关建。鉴于此，本文提出构建不完全信息下政府部门、社会资本方与金融机构三方的讨价还价动态博弈模型，首先对政府和社会资本方组成的“同盟”与金融机构之间进行第一阶段谈判，最后再对政府与社会资本方之间风险分配进行博弈，以此测算出综合管廊PPP项目各参与方的风险分担比例。最后将该模型应用到贵州六盘水市地下综合管廊PPP项目，验证该风险分担模型的合理性。

Abstract: The comprehensive pipe corridor PPP project has many complicated risks, and it involves a large number of participants. How to design a complete set of system scientific and suitable for China’s current development of the national risk sharing mechanism is crucial to ensure the successful construction of the integrated pipe PPP project. In view of this, this paper proposes to construct a dynamic bargaining game model of government departments, social capital parties and financial institutions under incomplete information. First, the first phase of negotiations between the “alliance” composed of government and social capital parties and financial institutions is carried out. Then, the game is divided into the risk distribution between the government and the social capital, so as to calculate the risk sharing ratio of the participants in the PPP project. Finally, the model is applied to the PPP project of the underground comprehensive pipe gallery in Liupanshui City, Guizhou Province, to verify the rationality of the risk sharing model.